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April
14
The Gist
A daily dose of market updates and smart investment strategies to guide your portfolio decisions
Today's Report
Your Morning Fix
- US and Iranian officials ended their highest-level talks in decades without a breakthrough but signaled dialogue may continue despite tense discussions over issues including the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program, and sanctions.
- Wall Street futures slipped as investors turned cautious after US-Iran peace talks collapsed, raising concerns about prolonged conflict, higher oil prices, and renewed volatility in global markets.
- President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. approved the suspension of excise taxes on LPG and kerosene to ease household fuel costs amid rising global oil prices, while excise levies on gasoline and diesel remain unchanged for now.
- The Philippines slipped to 18th place in Kearney’s 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index, as weaker investor sentiment, structural challenges, and falling capital inflows continue to dent its medium-term investment outlook.
- The Philippine peso slid back to the PHP 60.1-per-dollar level as the collapse of US-Iran peace talks pushed oil prices higher and boosted demand for the US dollar.
Our Portfolio Recommendation
Our peso portfolio is overweight on fixed income to manage risks from geopolitical-driven oil prices and inflation. We favor the 3-to-7-year curve for flexibility. Our stance on local equities is neutral due to elevated uncertainty, with a focus on stable sectors like telecommunications and utilities. The dollar portfolio maintains a neutral position across both fixed income and equities as the US–Iran crisis keeps yields high and the US Fed remains hawkish. We favor shorter-duration bonds to limit volatility and prefer defensive global equity names in utilities and industrials, while advising a reduced exposure to emerging markets hit by current tensions.
| 2025 Actual | 2026 Metrobank Forecast | 2027 Metrobank Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.4% | 4.5% | 6.0% |
| Inflation | 1.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% |
| BSP Target Reverse Repurchase Rate | 4.50% | 4.75% | 4.25% |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 3.50% | 3.50% |
| USD/PHP | 58.8 | 61.3 | 58.5 |
CHART OF THE DAY
Chart of the Day
PH diesel prices drop after massive six-week hike
Diesel prices are set to decrease by PHP 21 per liter this week. The rollback offers a reprieve after a six-week surge that saw pump prices rising by a total of PHP 96. Source: GMA Network Inc.
Featured Reports
More Reads
USD/PHP closes above 60 once again
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 28 centavos higher at 60.25 on Monday, after the failure of US-Iran peace negotiations over the weekend, with the US threatening a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The risk-off environment led to broad dollar strength and pushed oil prices back to the USD 100-level after retreating last week.
- This led the local pair to rally at the start before remittances and exporter flows came in, which capped the pair at 60.50.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 60.13, or 16 centavos higher day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 59.70/60.00, while the resistance levels are 60.30/50
READ MORE
Preference for short-tenors seen in local GS
- The collapse of US–Iran peace talks over the weekend pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of rising inflation and higher interest rates.
- This led to broad selling pressure in the local Government Securities market, with 8- to 9-year tenors underperforming the most.
- FXTNs 10 72 and 10 74 both closed higher in yield at 6.750%, while other benchmark bonds rose by 5 to 12 basis points.
- In contrast, demand for short-term paper was strong, with the 91-day T-bill auction posting a bid-to-cover ratio of 5.647x, the highest since the war began.
- Additional market uncertainty stems from the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, investors focus on the upcoming 5-year FXTN 20 17 auction today.
READ MORE
PSEi declines amid geopolitical tensions
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 44.16 lower at 6,054.05 on Monday, as weaker global sentiment took hold amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks and renewed oil price concerns.
- Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (+4.03%), ACEN Corp. (+2.02%), and International Container Terminal Services Inc. (+1.94%) led the gainers.
- Meanwhile, BDO Unibank Inc. (-4.72%), and Jollibee Foods Corp. (-4.48%) weighed on the index.
- Foreign investors were net sellers at PHP 216.89 million, highlighting a more cautious tone as geopolitical risks and currency weakness weighed on sentiment.
- Trading remained active in large cap names, helping lift total value turnover to PHP 6.5 billion, but market breadth was broadly negative at 82 gainers against 121 decliners.
READ MORE
USD/PHP closes above 60 once again
- The USD/PHP exchange rate opened 28 centavos higher at 60.25 on Monday, after the failure of US-Iran peace negotiations over the weekend, with the US threatening a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The risk-off environment led to broad dollar strength and pushed oil prices back to the USD 100-level after retreating last week.
- This led the local pair to rally at the start before remittances and exporter flows came in, which capped the pair at 60.50.
- The USD/PHP exchange rate ultimately closed at 60.13, or 16 centavos higher day-on-day.
- The current support levels of USD/PHP are 59.70/60.00, while the resistance levels are 60.30/50
READ MORE
Preference for short-tenors seen in local GS
- The collapse of US–Iran peace talks over the weekend pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing expectations of rising inflation and higher interest rates.
- This led to broad selling pressure in the local Government Securities market, with 8- to 9-year tenors underperforming the most.
- FXTNs 10 72 and 10 74 both closed higher in yield at 6.750%, while other benchmark bonds rose by 5 to 12 basis points.
- In contrast, demand for short-term paper was strong, with the 91-day T-bill auction posting a bid-to-cover ratio of 5.647x, the highest since the war began.
- Additional market uncertainty stems from the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, investors focus on the upcoming 5-year FXTN 20 17 auction today.
READ MORE
PSEi declines amid geopolitical tensions
- The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended 44.16 lower at 6,054.05 on Monday, as weaker global sentiment took hold amid stalled US-Iran ceasefire talks and renewed oil price concerns.
- Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (+4.03%), ACEN Corp. (+2.02%), and International Container Terminal Services Inc. (+1.94%) led the gainers.
- Meanwhile, BDO Unibank Inc. (-4.72%), and Jollibee Foods Corp. (-4.48%) weighed on the index.
- Foreign investors were net sellers at PHP 216.89 million, highlighting a more cautious tone as geopolitical risks and currency weakness weighed on sentiment.
- Trading remained active in large cap names, helping lift total value turnover to PHP 6.5 billion, but market breadth was broadly negative at 82 gainers against 121 decliners.
READ MORE